BTC Experiences Record-Breaking Losing Streak, Yet Historical Patterns Point to Imminent Recovery
Bitcoin heads toward yet another down month, but market experts identify key structural differences in today's market that may signal an upcoming reversal in the trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised to record its fifth straight monthly decline, representing the most extended period of consecutive losses since 2018. Despite this bearish outlook, historical data indicates that March could emerge as a lucrative period for BTC holders.
Past extended downturns preceded 300% rallies in Bitcoin price
According to historical pricing information compiled by CoinGlass, Bitcoin currently confronts its fifth month of consecutive declines, posting a 15% drop this month following four prior months that also closed negatively.
The most recent occurrence of such a prolonged downturn took place in 2018, when the cryptocurrency descended into bearish territory following its historic peak achieved in 2017.
"Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months," macro investor platform Milk Road's analysts noted in a Thursday post on X.
According to the analysts, this eventually culminated in a trend reversal that delivered returns exceeding 316% throughout the subsequent five-month period, with the experts further noting:
"If history repeats, the reversal will begin on April 1st."
Examining Bitcoin's performance on a quarterly basis throughout the 2022 bear market offers a more measured perspective when reviewing BTC's price history. The information reveals that Bitcoin logged four back-to-back negative quarters throughout that annual period.
The losses accumulated throughout these four quarters, culminating in total losses of 64% as the BTC/USD trading pair concluded the year at $16,500, down from its opening valuation of $46,230. This represented one of the most severe price reductions in the history of Bitcoin.
According to Cointelegraph's previous coverage, numerous market analysts anticipate 2026 to unfold as a bearish year, and a comparable run of four consecutive losing quarters might push prices beneath the 15-month bottom of $60,000.
Market analyst Solana Sensei posted a technical chart highlighting Bitcoin's weekly trading patterns, showing the fifth consecutive negative candlestick formation.
This represents the most prolonged losing sequence since 2022, positioning it as the 2nd-longest consecutive decline ever documented.
Throughout 2022, BTC's price witnessed nine consecutive red weeks, plummeting to $20,500 after starting at $46,800.
Consequently, although historical monthly patterns point toward a forthcoming recovery, the quarterly and weekly metrics from 2022 illustrate that BTC price depreciation might persist for an extended duration beyond current expectations.
Today's market conditions are "fundamentally different"
Experienced market analyst Sykodelic contends that Bitcoin's present bearish phase differs "fundamentally" for multiple reasons, notably that the monthly RSI has already declined to levels matching the 2015 and 2018 bear market bottoms.
According to Sykodelic, because a genuine overbought expansion failed to materialize in the monthly RSI throughout the bullish phase, market traders will be led astray if they anticipate a proportional contraction.
"This is yet again another situation in which we look a lot more like 2020 than any other period in time," the analyst stated in a Thursday X post, further commenting:
"I am not seeing anything that tells me we are in the same style bear market as we have had previously, and everyone should be aware of these differences."
This analysis implies the present bear market cycle is deviating from established historical precedents, meaning Bitcoin's price floor and the ensuing rebound might surprise numerous market participants who remain unprepared.