BTC Targets $90K as Markets Await FOMC Decision: Critical Price Zones to Monitor
As Bitcoin hovers beneath the $90,000 threshold, market participants prepare for Jerome Powell's upcoming FOMC address, which may catalyze significant price volatility across crucial BTC support and resistance zones.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) is making efforts to push through the resistance level positioned at $90,000, while market participants anticipate substantial price volatility surrounding the United States monetary policy announcement regarding potential interest rate adjustments.
Key takeaways:
- The odds of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged today are 100%.
- BTC price may drop as low as $65,500 if the key support zone between $80,000 and $84,000 is broken.
Interest rate freeze carries 100% probability
According to information gathered from Polymarket, there exists nearly a 100% probability that current interest rates will stay within the 3.5% to 3.75% range.
Additionally, traders in the futures market have priced in a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates without change, leaving just 2.8% odds for a 25 basis point cut.
Nevertheless, analysts within the market suggest that any negative price movement resulting from unchanged interest rates has already been factored into current valuations.
Market participants must navigate additional sources of potential volatility, though, including developments in the Japanese economy, the possibility of another United States government shutdown, the Federal Reserve's decision to purchase yen, alongside Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address following the FOMC meeting.
As a result, market observers will pay close attention to Powell's rhetoric during the FOMC press conference to detect any potential changes in messaging.
"Tomorrow is FOMC and markets are certain that the Fed will leave rates unchanged," analyst Satoshi Stacker said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
"All eyes will be on Powell's press conference and what he suggests the Fed's plans are for the coming months."
"If we hear any hints of cuts in March, Bitcoin sends to the moon," said crypto investor Kiran Gadakh.
In the meantime, the US dollar index declined to a four-year low point of 95.55 on Tuesday, marking the weakest level witnessed since February 2022.
Based on historical patterns, a weakening dollar during periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability tends to reduce the liquidity that risk assets such as Bitcoin require for upward momentum.
According to previous Cointelegraph analysis, the BTC/USD trading pair has traditionally experienced significant breakouts several months following instances when the DXY dropped beneath the 96 threshold.
Key BTC price zones identified by market analysts
Market observers indicate that Bitcoin bulls need to maintain the $80,000-$84,000 support zone to prevent a more severe correction, with bearish targets projected as low as $58,000.
According to Daan Crypto Trades, the support level at $84,000 remains critical for bullish market participants, as it represents the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level calculated from the 2022 bear market low of $15,500 to recent peak levels.
The analyst presented a chart demonstrating that retests of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement have successfully held throughout the complete cycle up to this point.
While the "price was much quicker to react previously, this is not the case now," Daan Crypto Trades said, adding:
"While this is technically still a decent level to watch, I'd want to see some action pretty soon to keep the structure alive."
"Bitcoin cannot lose $81K under any circumstances," said founder and CEO of Alphractal Joao Wedson in a X post on Tuesday.
A breakdown below this price point would indicate that a "capitulation process similar to 2022 may unfold," Wedson said, adding:
"The next major support would sit around $65,500."
Regarding potential upward movement, a significant zone of interest exists between $90,000 and $94,000, which is where both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are currently positioned.
Beyond that level, the subsequent target would involve retesting the $98,000 psychological resistance point, which also corresponds to the short-term holder cost basis.