Death threats sent to journalist by Polymarket traders over Iran strike coverage
Concerns have been mounting that prediction markets linked to military conflicts may encourage insider trading, prompting regulatory action from legislators in the United States and internationally.
The prediction markets platform Polymarket has announced the banning and reporting of users who subjected an Israeli journalist to death threats in an attempt to force him to modify a news article concerning an Iranian missile strike, which was at the center of a $17 million prediction market.
Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, detailed in a Monday report that he started receiving messages demanding he alter his coverage of an Iranian missile that impacted an area outside the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on March 10.
"As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket," he wrote.
The market permitted wagers on the specific date Iran would launch a strike on Israel, with more than $17 million presently bet on March 10.
According to the rules, the market "will resolve to 'Yes' if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil on the listed date," but a provision in the rules specifies that "missiles or drones that are intercepted" would not count even if they land in Israel.
"My minor report on a missile striking an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, with those who had bet 'No' on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 demanding I change my article to ensure they would win big," Fabian wrote.
Trading activity on prediction markets, with Polymarket and Kalshi being the largest platforms, has experienced significant growth over the past year, yet critics and legislators have cautioned that widely-followed markets connected to warfare and political developments may create incentives for insider trading.
Journalist gets death threats over report
According to Fabian, he was contacted through emails, messages and phone calls urging him to modify his report to state the strike involved a missile fragment, with one person even creating a fabricated message designed to appear as if Fabian had agreed the missile had been intercepted.
Fabian reported receiving extensive, menacing messages in Hebrew from an individual identifying as "Haim," who instructed him to change the report or face "damage you have never imagined you would suffer."
According to Fabian, Haim cautioned that he was "at risk," threatened they would spend money "to finish you," claimed he "made a fatal mistake" and stated he had created "enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable."
Haim additionally provided "specific details" regarding his parents, family and neighborhood, he noted.
Fabian indicated he filed a police report concerning the threats, and authorities are currently conducting an investigation.
In a statement shared on X on Monday, Polymarket declared it "condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter."
"This behavior violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities," it added.
Fabian further revealed that, prior to the threatening communications, a colleague from a different media organization had reached out to him, explaining that an acquaintance was requesting the report be changed.
That journalist subsequently confronted their acquaintance regarding the request, who acknowledged placing bets on Polymarket and proposing to share a portion of the winnings if the report was altered.
"The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed," Fabian said. "But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings."
At the time of writing, the outcome of the market regarding when Iran would strike Israel on Polymarket remained under dispute, with "No" bettors claiming the explosion on March 10 resulted from an intercepted missile.
Nevertheless, Fabian subsequently reported that the Israeli Defense Forces verified the missile that detonated outside of Beit Shemesh had not been intercepted.