BTC faces critical $86K test as weekly close sees bulls retreat amid selling pressure
As US futures markets prepared for opening, Bitcoin surrendered earlier gains while traders braced for multiple catalysts that could trigger significant downside volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced lows not seen in multiple days as Sunday's weekly close approached, with bullish traders confronting a week laden with macroeconomic uncertainty.
Key points:
- Bitcoin trends downward as anxiety regarding forthcoming macroeconomic volatility catalysts intensifies across markets.
- Analysis of BTC price action indicates downside risks substantially exceed potential for upside movement.
- A possible bullish divergence relative to silver provides a small ray of optimism.
Bitcoin weakens heading into major macro week
According to data tracked by TradingView, BTC/USD experienced declines of 1.6%, touching $87,471 on the Bitstamp exchange.
Data from CoinGlass revealed that long positions constituted the bulk of 24-hour cryptocurrency liquidations, which surpassed $250 million.
The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, linked the market's weakness to the possibility of yet another shutdown of the US government in upcoming days.
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $88,000 as $60 million worth of levered longs are liquidated in 30 minutes. A government shutdown is now expected and President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Canada. US stock market futures will open in less than 7 hours.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 25, 2026
In a message to X followers, it advised to "Buckle up for a huge week ahead," while also drawing attention to President Donald Trump's tariff threats targeting Canada, upcoming releases of macroeconomic data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The Federal Reserve decision, scheduled for Jan. 28, was anticipated to maintain current rates unchanged despite pressure from Trump for additional cuts.
At the time of writing, the most recent projections from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated the probability of a 0.25% cut at minimum stood at just %.
Kobeissi further noted that "Earnings season has arrived and headwinds are mounting on multiple fronts."
BTC price rallies present "potential short opportunity"
For traders in the market, the low time frame trading range for BTC price action represented the primary concern requiring attention.
In his most recent X analysis, trader CrypNuevo observed that "Now, price is currently losing the mid-range which is a bearish sign for continuation to the downside, to the range lows."
Examining exchange order-book liquidity, CrypNuevo identified $86,300 as the critical level bulls must defend.
He summarized by stating, "Based on Bitcoin losing the mid-range; HTF liquidations to the downside; and the possible US Gov. shutdown, we still think that the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin drops back to low $80s in the coming weeks."
"Any short-lived pump this week is a potential short opportunity."
Meanwhile, other market observers highlighted a notable surge in open interest as the weekly close approached.
That's a serious open interest increase... On a Sunday... Right before we have a lot of major macro events... You guys are nuts. $BTC
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) January 25, 2026
However, a more optimistic perspective emerged from Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur.
Following record-high prints from both gold and silver, Van de Poppe identified a possible bullish divergence forming on BTC/XAG.
He declared on the day that "For the first time in the history, $BTC might print a bullish divergence against Silver on the 3-Day Timeframe."
"What does this say? This does say that the coming week is going to be extremely volatile and could indicate a bottom on this metric and therefore, Silver is likely to peak and money is likely rotating towards other assets."
