Standard Chartered maintains $2T stablecoin projection while reducing Treasury bill expectations
The banking giant has reduced its projection for Treasury bill demand stemming from stablecoins to between $0.8-$1 trillion through 2028, while keeping its $2 trillion stablecoin market projection intact.
Analysts at Standard Chartered have held firm on their projection that stablecoin markets will achieve a $2 trillion valuation by the final months of 2028, even as they've revised downward their outlook for demand in short-term United States Treasury bills.
Major stablecoins including Tether's USDt (USDT) and Circle's USDC (USDC) are projected to drive T-bill demand to reach $2.2 trillion before 2028 closes, according to a Monday report from Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies, which was provided to Cointelegraph.
Although the market capitalization of US dollar-denominated stablecoins has plateaued near the $300 billion mark in recent months throughout a wider cryptocurrency market decline, the analysts maintain an optimistic outlook following the United States GENIUS Act's passage in 2025.
"We see these issues as cyclical rather than structural, and we continue to expect stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by end-2028," Standard Chartered's report said.
Stablecoins may drive Treasury to issue more bills despite lowered demand
Based on Standard Chartered's analysis, stablecoins are currently projected to create between $0.8-$1 trillion in additional T-bill demand to be utilized as reserves before the end of 2028, representing a significant decrease from the $1.6 trillion forecasted in April 2025, notwithstanding the GENIUS Act's passage.
Analysts from Standard Chartered continue to anticipate that the United States Treasury may leverage this prospective excess demand as a rationale for issuing additional T-bills. The analysts referenced statements made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early February, during which he indicated the GENIUS Act could serve as "an important feature of financing the US government."
The quarterly refunding announcement released by the Treasury that same day also referenced "growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector," as the analysts highlighted, further stating:
"Stablecoin-related demand, in conjunction with the Fed's recent decision to commence RMPs [reserve management purchases] and replace its maturing MBS [mortgage-backed securities] with T-bills, could arguably cause T-bills to become overly scarce."
Beyond their forecast projecting stablecoins will achieve $2 trillion by 2028's conclusion, Standard Chartered had previously anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) would reach $500,000 during that same timeframe.
Given the persistent uncertainty pervading cryptocurrency markets, the bank's analytical team has recently revised their BTC price projection for 2026 downward from $150,000 to $100,000, while forecasting the digital currency could decline to as low as $50,000 prior to a possible recovery phase.