Economist: Half of Bitcoin's Months Show Gains Over Two-Year Period
Timothy Peterson, an economist, forecasts Bitcoin will surpass current prices by December, but this prediction faces skepticism from several market analysts.
According to an economist's analysis, Bitcoin has recorded positive returns in exactly half of all months spanning the previous two-year period, which could serve as a compelling indicator that the cryptocurrency will trade higher than current levels by December.
"50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now," economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. Throughout 2025, the leading cryptocurrency registered positive performance during January, April, May, June, July, and September, whereas the remaining half dozen months closed in negative territory, as reported by CoinGlass data.
According to Peterson's methodology, he utilizes this particular metric to calculate how many months show positive results within any given 24-month window, allowing him to detect potential turning points in the market.
Market participants on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency prediction marketplace, are currently assigning a 17% probability to December emerging as Bitcoin's (BTC) top-performing month in 2026, narrowly trailing November which stands at 18%.
Looking at historical patterns, November has consistently emerged as Bitcoin's most profitable month on average dating back to 2013, delivering an impressive average return of 41.13%, based on data compiled by CoinGlass.
This optimistic projection from Peterson emerges at a time when Bitcoin's current price sits nearly 25% beneath where it began the year, trading at $68,173 as of the time of writing, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Market experts remain split regarding the digital asset's short-term trajectory. On Friday, Michael van de Poppe, who founded MN Trading Capital, expressed his view: "I would expect next week to be green for BTC." "Finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months," he said.
Conversely, other market observers anticipate further price declines lie ahead. Seasoned trader Peter Brand shared with Magazine in a recent interview that Bitcoin's "real bottom will not occur until October 2026."
This bullish prediction from Peterson emerges against a backdrop of deteriorating sentiment across cryptocurrency markets. On Sunday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, an instrument designed to gauge overall market sentiment in the crypto space, registered an "Extreme Fear" reading of 9, indicating that investors are exercising extreme caution in their approach.
Nonetheless, Santiment, a platform dedicated to analyzing crypto market sentiment, noted on Friday that the diminishing frequency of Bitcoin price forecasts appearing across social media channels among cryptocurrency market participants represents a positive development as overall sentiment gravitates back toward "neutral" levels.