Could Bitcoin Face a Downturn as Crude Oil Approaches $100 Mark?
The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are driving crude oil prices upward, though historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin may actually benefit in the long run despite short-term concerns.
The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an initial decline before recovering its losses entirely, prompting investors and traders to question the implications of elevated crude oil prices for BTC's future price trajectory.
Key takeaways:
- Rising tensions in the Middle East have propelled oil prices to $79, potentially threatening Bitcoin with a decline toward $60,000 as inflation concerns mount and Federal Reserve rate reductions face delays.
- While BTC tends to decline in the immediate aftermath of oil price surges, historical data shows it delivers superior performance over medium and extended timeframes.
Bitcoin faces short-term risks as oil prices surge
According to TradingView data, crude oil surged to reach a 15-month peak of $79.84 during Monday's early Asian market hours, following reports that Iranian drones struck Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery facility.
At the time of publication, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index had declined approximately 1% for the trading session.
On Polymarket, bettors are assigning approximately 56% probability to crude oil trading above $90 per barrel during March, with a 44% likelihood of breaching the $100 threshold.
56% chance Crude Oil hits $90 in March.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 1, 2026
In response to these developments, market observers anticipate Bitcoin's near-term susceptibility should oil reach $100, as inflation concerns postpone rate reductions and potentially spark selloffs pushing prices below $60,000.
"Crude oil will go sharply higher, Gold sharply higher. Bitcoin and crypto will go lower," crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano wrote in part of an initial response on X.
Pompliano identified "critical variables" related to the Middle East conflict, including the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz, while forecasting eventual market responses.
Should Iran attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, "every commodity in the world reprices violently upward" while Bitcoin drops sharply, he said, adding:
This is the single most important variable.
"If Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could rip past $100-$108. That's not just an oil story — it's an inflation shock," crypto analyst BBX said in a recent post on X, adding:
Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → 'higher for longer' rates.
Nevertheless, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, contended that historical precedents suggest American military engagement in the Middle East ultimately results in Fed rate cuts or monetary expansion to fund the war effort, a strategy he expects will propel Bitcoin prices upward.
"The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana's latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism," he said in his latest essay.
Bullish for BTC? Oil price gains may be short-lived
Throughout history, Bitcoin and oil prices have demonstrated a largely inverse correlation, with crude oil experiencing immediate sharp increases following the outbreak of conflicts due to elevated energy expenses for BTC mining operations and widespread market instability.
Nevertheless, oil price increases have typically proven temporary in nature, with Bitcoin demonstrating superior performance across extended periods.
As an example, when the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2022, crude oil jumped 50% while Bitcoin price declined 18%. BTC subsequently rebounded, however, climbing 40% during the following two-week period.
A comparable pattern emerged following the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel's attack on Iran in 2025, as shown in the chart below.
The present circumstances appear to be tracking a comparable initial-phase trajectory.
Crude oil jumped as much as 15% to $79 from a low of $69 on Thursday as market participants responded to intensifying Middle Eastern tensions and the potential threat to critical transit corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz.
From a chart analysis standpoint, oil is attempting to break above its multi-year downtrend, an event that has historically preceded 100%-200% Bitcoin price rallies, said analyst Max Crypto.
