VanEck CEO: BTC Nears Bottom as Four-Year Market Cycle Concludes
VanEck's Jan van Eck believes analysts are making Bitcoin's recent price movements more complex than necessary, stating that the cyclical four-year pattern remains the primary factor suppressing valuations.
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck believes that Bitcoin's price is approaching its lowest point, citing the conclusion of the four-year market cycle as the key indicator.
In a Monday interview with CNBC, van Eck indicated that his company anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) will begin a gradual recovery throughout this year, maintaining that the four-year halving cycle has served as the dominant force influencing prices in recent months, rather than any factors tied to BTC's underlying fundamentals.
"Our perspective entering 2026 centers on Bitcoin being controlled by [...] a capped supply of 21 million coins, and the halving cycle whereby Bitcoin miners operating the network receive half the amount of Bitcoin every four years," he explained, further stating:
"There's been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that's why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom."
The four-year cryptocurrency cycle has emerged as a contentious discussion point throughout the past year, with digital asset analysts divided on whether this chart pattern remains relevant in today's landscape given the current level of institutional adoption and the maturity of the crypto marketplace.
Those challenging the cycle theory point to macro demand generated by exchange-traded funds, the declining strength of the USD, and favorable regulatory developments as counterarguments.
The remarks from Jan van Eck arrive as BTC's price has climbed 2.6% during the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $68,400 at the time of writing, representing a 7.6% increase over the past seven days, based on data provided by CoinGecko.
The cryptocurrency rally has aligned with escalating geopolitical tensions, following air strikes launched by the United States and Israel targeting Iran, which subsequently led Iran to conduct retaliatory strikes against Israel.
Van Eck offered his perspective that Bitcoin's recent price rebound might be partially driven by the ongoing conflict, suggesting that crypto payment infrastructure plays a critical role in facilitating fund transfers outside traditional banking systems during periods of economic instability.
"When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it's a very, very crypto-friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything," he said, adding:
"So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don't control."