Ominous 'death cross' emerges on Bitcoin charts, sparking end-of-cycle concerns
Historical data shows BTC typically declines approximately 35% within a month following comparable moving average crossovers, heightening downside concerns among market participants.
A new "death cross" signal has emerged on Bitcoin's (BTC) three-day price chart, representing the first occurrence of this bearish technical indicator since June 2022.
Key takeaways:
- The appearance of BTC's death cross increases the probability of an average 35% decline throughout March.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have recorded more than $458 million in net daily inflows.
Historical death cross formations led to 35% price declines
The death cross technical formation occurs when the 50-period moving average for the short term falls beneath the 200-period moving average for the long term, and this pattern has historically signaled additional near-term downward pressure.
Looking back to 2022, Bitcoin's crossover between the 50 and 200 moving averages on the three-day timeframe preceded a significant decline of approximately 50%, ultimately finding its floor around $15,480.
Prior to 2026, Bitcoin had experienced the death cross formation on three separate occasions. The average performance in the subsequent one-month, three-month, and 12-month periods stood at approximately –35%, –20%, and +30%, respectively.
Throughout these three cycles, Bitcoin's average decline from peak to trough measured roughly 80%. By March 2026, BTC had already experienced a decline of approximately 50% from its all-time high of around $126,270 recorded five months earlier.
This development implies that BTC is currently moving into "the most brutal part of the bear market," according to analyst Mister Crypto.
This perspective aligns with market observers who anticipate Bitcoin ultimately establishing a price floor within the $30,000–$45,000 zone.
Bitcoin ETF products see $458.20 million inflows amid Middle East tensions
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States recorded $458.20 million in net inflows on Monday, based on data from Farside Investors, indicating that investors are once again purchasing the dip following several weeks of capital outflows.
These capital inflows occurred while Bitcoin price volatility intensified amid a significant escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts.
Following military strikes by the US and Israel on Feb. 28, Iranian officials announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and issued warnings regarding potential attacks on vessels attempting passage, generating renewed anxieties about energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and global shipping lanes.
Nevertheless, Arthur Hayes, who previously served as BitMEX CEO, contends that this situation could ultimately support higher Bitcoin valuations.
In a recently published essay, Hayes suggested that extended American military engagement might eventually compel policymakers to adopt more accommodative monetary policies.
He stated that the more prolonged US President Donald Trump remains involved in expensive "Iranian nation-building," the greater the likelihood the Fed "lowers the price and increases the quantity of money."