ETH plunges to $1,800 level while indicators signal bearish momentum continues
The decline of Ether to $1,800 showcases deteriorating technical indicators and blockchain metrics suggesting additional downward pressure amid ongoing Ethereum ETF withdrawals.
During Tuesday's Asian market session, Ether (ETH) slipped beneath the $1,900 threshold, pushing its monthly losses to 38% as investor confidence weakened following President Donald Trump's implementation of new tariffs.
Multiple technical and market metrics indicate that ETH's valuation could experience further decline before bulls mount any significant recovery effort.
Key takeaways:
- The current trading price of Ether sits beneath its realized price level, a configuration that has previously indicated bearish trend continuation.
- A potential bottom for ETH may not materialize until the 50-week moving average drops below the 100-week average line.
- The Coinbase Premium indicator has reached a 3.5-year minimum while continuous ETF outflows demonstrate significant selling pressure from United States-based investors.
Realized price threshold breached by Ether
Over the past 30 days, Ether has experienced a 38% decline, pushing it beneath critical support thresholds, notably its realized price level.
The realized price represents an onchain measurement that reconfigures market capitalization by calculating the value at which ETH tokens were most recently transferred.
At its present trading value of $1,830, Ether sits beneath its average cost basis of $2,380, a configuration that historically indicates bearish market conditions.
During periods when realized price exceeds spot price, it typically functions as a resistance barrier, creating a situation where many holders face unrealized losses.
These market circumstances increase the probability of panic-driven liquidations, particularly given the tariff-induced anxiety and uncertainty currently affecting cryptocurrency markets.
Furthermore, historical instances where prices dropped below realized price levels have signaled complete capitulation cycles, characterized by widespread investor confidence erosion and mass selling events.
During June 2022, the spot price of Ether declined below its realized price threshold, which preceded a substantial 45% correction in ETH valuation following the collapse of Terra Luna. A comparable pattern emerged in August 2018, after which Ether experienced a devastating 77% plunge.
The present market configuration bears striking similarities to these earlier scenarios, elevating the risk that ETH could face an even steeper corrective phase.
Technical chart analysis continues supporting bearish outlook for ETH
Historical data demonstrates that ETH failed to establish a market bottom until the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) descended below the 100-week EMA threshold. This specific crossover pattern has signaled the conclusion of each significant bear cycle, notably during 2022 and 2018, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
With the 50-week EMA positioned at $3,017, marginally above the 100-week EMA sitting at $2,920, the data suggests the ETH/USD trading pair could decline further before these trend indicators signal a probable market floor.
Market analysts have also identified a bear flag formation on the daily timeframe chart following the loss of crucial support zones.
According to trader BitBull in a post shared on X this Monday, Ether's "bear flag is playing out right now," with the analyst further stating:
"The final target is $1,400-$1,500."
According to previous Cointelegraph coverage, the ETH/USD trading pair faces the possibility of declining to levels as low as $1,100, propelled by diminishing network utilization and weakening institutional appetite.
Coinbase Premium for Ether retreats to levels last seen in 2022
The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the valuation differential for ETH between Coinbase and Binance exchanges, fell to -0.11 on Feb. 6 before partially recovering to its present reading of -0.09.
A significantly negative premium reading indicates that substantial selling pressure originates from United States markets, especially among retail trading participants. The most recent occurrence of such deeply negative 30-day SMA readings occurred during the most severe phase of 2022's bear market.
Throughout market history, exceptionally negative premium values have frequently aligned with capitulation periods, as witnessed during 2022. The prevailing downward pressure will persist while American investors continue selling at discounted rates.
Concurrently, institutional interest has undergone sharp deterioration, as United States-based spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced continuous outflows spanning five consecutive weeks, representing the most extended withdrawal streak since April 2025.
Throughout this timeframe, investors have extracted approximately $1.3 billion from these financial instruments, with the previous week alone witnessing $123 million in fund exits, based on information provided by SoSoValue.
Consequently, institutional participants are actively divesting under prevailing market conditions, with global Ethereum investment vehicles recording outflows exceeding $36.5 million during the previous week, contributing additional resistance to Ether's price performance.