Early 2024 BTC Accumulation Zone Provides Support as Analysts Target $52K Drop
Recent data shows long-term Bitcoin holders who bought two years ago have mitigated selling pressure lately, though the majority of market experts continue to anticipate further macro price declines for BTC.
Fresh research indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming increasingly "dependent" on purchasers from the first half of 2024 as price movement remains stuck under the $70,000 threshold.
Key points:
- Early 2024 Bitcoin purchasers are emerging as a significant potential support level for BTC valuation.
- The cost basis for these holders stretches downward to the $60,000 mark, with no significant surrender event occurring thus far.
- Further macro BTC price declines continue to be a widely anticipated short-term scenario.
Early 2024 Bitcoin holders have successfully "absorbed" fresh selling activity
With BTC/USD hovering approximately 45% beneath its October 2025 record peak, purchasers who entered the market well ahead of that milestone are currently providing market stability.
The significance of these holders has grown substantially more apparent following Bitcoin's descent below its genuine market mean valuation positioned around $80,000.
"Upon closer examination of price dynamics following the breach underneath the True Market Mean, it becomes evident that downward momentum has been predominantly absorbed within a concentrated demand territory spanning from $60k to $69k," Glassnode's analysis explained.
"This concentration zone was mainly formed throughout the first half of 2024 consolidation period, during which market participants accumulated holdings within an extended trading range and have subsequently maintained these positions for more than twelve months."
Analysts pointed to the seven-month period of sideways price consolidation that dominated a substantial portion of 2024, which brought attention back to previous all-time peak levels of $69,000 established in late 2021.
Currently, these investors are approaching underwater territory on their holdings, yet they continue to resist surrendering their positions.
"The location of this investor group near their entry price levels seems to have dampened additional selling pressure, playing a role in the formation of another lateral trading pattern beginning in late January 2026," the "The Week Onchain" report elaborated.
"The successful protection of the $60k–$69k price corridor indicates that medium-duration holders are maintaining their conviction, enabling the market to shift from sharp downward movement into range-bound consolidation and absorption."
Fresh BTC price declines expected within "next week or so?"
This demonstration of hodler determination arrives at a critical juncture as market observers continue to forecast additional macro downside movements ahead.
According to Cointelegraph's previous coverage, Bitcoin market participants demonstrate minimal confidence in the current trading range serving as reliable support, with the $50,000 level now emerging as a frequently cited downside objective.
"Anticipated a rapid upward movement to recalibrate technical indicators followed by an immediate return to downward trajectory. My assessment remains that 52-53k is approaching within the next week or so," trader Roman's projection outlined this week.
The chart accompanying the analysis indicated that the technical indicator "reset" would impact both the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) metrics across four-hour timeframe observations.
In earlier coverage, Cointelegraph highlighted exceptionally low weekly RSI readings, with technical analysis suggesting that such depressed levels historically occur only once during each market cycle.