BTC Plunges 22% in Q1 2026: Is This the Weakest Quarter Since 2018?
The leading cryptocurrency has dropped 22.3% during the first quarter of 2026, marking its most challenging three-month period since the bear market of 2018, data from CoinGlass reveals.
The world's leading cryptocurrency appears to be on course for its most challenging opening quarter in nearly a decade, as current data reveals Bitcoin has already experienced a 22.3% decline year-to-date.
Starting the year with prices hovering near $87,700, the digital asset has shed approximately $20,000 in value, currently trading around the $68,000 level. This downturn positions it to potentially record its most devastating first quarter since 2018's bear market, which witnessed a nearly 50% collapse, data from CoinGlass indicates.
Throughout the past thirteen first quarters, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced negative returns in seven instances. The most recent decline occurred in 2025 with an 11.8% drop, followed by 2020's 10.8% decrease, while the most severe downturn remains 2018, when the cryptocurrency plummeted 49.7% within a mere three-month span.
The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature. So it's safe to say, whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line, according to the historical price action.
Daan Trades Crypto, analyst
Could This Mark the First Consecutive Red January and February?
Throughout Bitcoin's history, BTC has witnessed only two instances of back-to-back first-quarter losses, occurring during the bear market cycles of 2018 and 2022.
By contrast, Ether (ETH) has registered negative performance in merely three out of the last nine opening quarters, with the ongoing period developing into what could be its third-most severe historically, having accumulated 34.3% in losses to date.
At the same time, Bitcoin is approaching what would be an unprecedented milestone: its first-ever back-to-back negative January and February. The digital currency shed 10.2% during January and has fallen an additional 13.4% throughout the current month. To avoid a red February, it must climb back above the $80,000 threshold.
BTC Experiencing a Correctional Phase
According to Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, who spoke with Cointelegraph, the current downward movement in BTC pricing amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty "reflects a regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown in the asset's long-term trajectory."
While short-term pressures could intensify if macroeconomic headwinds persist, historical patterns show Bitcoin's resilience often leads to strong recoveries in later months, particularly as institutional adoption and halving cycle dynamics continue to strengthen its potential.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research
In the meantime, BTC has now entered its fifth straight week of declining prices, retreating another 2.3% during the last 24-hour period to settle at $68,670 as of this writing, data from CoinGecko shows.