Market Experts Divided on Whether Ethereum Has Reached Bottom or Faces Further Decline
Market experts report that Ether's MVRV Z-Score has reached capitulation levels at -0.42 following a 30% decline over two weeks, although the metric remains distant from its historical low.
The Ethereum network has entered a territory commonly linked with widespread capitulation, registering an MVRV Z-Score of -0.42 — yet market experts remain divided regarding whether the cryptocurrency's price has approached its floor.
The MVRV Z-Score serves as an analytical tool for determining whether a digital asset is trading above or below its fair value by measuring the relationship between its market capitalization and realized capitalization, which represents the aggregate value of Ether calculated at the price points of its most recent transfers.
This indicator was developed to identify moments of extreme market sentiment or surrender, occurring when the market capitalization significantly diverges from the realized capitalization in either direction.
Joao Wedson, who serves as both a CryptoQuant analyst and the founder and CEO of Alphractal, stated that the current reading "shows that Ethereum is indeed going through a clear capitulation process."
Nevertheless, Wedson noted that the current data "does not compare to the intensity" observed during the significant market bottoms experienced throughout the 2018 and 2022 bearish cycles.
According to Wedson, the most severe reading ever recorded reached -0.76, which occurred in December 2018.
Additional Price Declines for ETH Remain Possible
Wedson issued a warning that additional price deterioration might occur prior to any substantial market recovery taking hold.
"The market is already under stress, but historically, there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is formed," he said.
Ether's valuation has experienced a 30% decrease during the previous two-week period, touching a bear market floor of $1,825 on Friday before experiencing a modest rebound to $2,100 by Monday.
Tim Sun, who holds the position of senior researcher at HashKey Group, informed Cointelegraph that throughout historical cycles, Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score "has proven to be a highly reliable indicator for tracking subsequent market shifts, particularly in identifying bottoming zones across multiple cycles."
"Judging by on-chain activity, protocol evolution, and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum's fundamentals have not seen any substantive deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve across several key dimensions," he said.
That said, drawing conclusions about Ether completing its bottoming formation would be hasty while the fundamental catalysts behind the ongoing downturn remain in place, Sun noted.
"Given the potential liquidity constraints associated with the upcoming April tax season, the probability of further price downside remains a significant factor."
Among the Most Compelling "Buy Fear" Opportunities for Ether
Meanwhile, other market analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, expressed greater optimism, declaring, "I think that this is a tremendous opportunity to be looking at ETH."
"The core reason for this is that there's a massive gap to the 'fair price,'" he said, referring to the MVRV ratio.
The current level of Ether undervaluation mirrors conditions seen during the April 2025 market crash, the June 2022 market floor following the Terra/Luna implosion, the March 2020 pandemic-induced selloff, and the December 2018 bear cycle nadir.
"In all of those cases, this provided a tremendous buying opportunity for this particular asset."
Andri Fauzan Adziima, who leads research efforts at cryptocurrency trading platform Bitrue, shared with Cointelegraph that negative MVRV territory readings "have repeatedly preceded explosive recoveries in past cycles."
"With ETH's network metrics holding strong, it feels like a prime long-term accumulation setup once the weak hands are fully flushed," he said.
"Brutal capitulation now, but historically one of the best 'buy fear' windows for ETH."
