Gold's surge contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's decline amid shifting crypto landscape
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets lost investor interest as artificial intelligence, technology equities, and gold captured the spotlight. Can expanding worldwide monetary supply provide momentum for BTC?
The performance trajectories of Bitcoin (BTC) and gold have diverged dramatically throughout 2026. Since early 2024, gold has experienced a remarkable surge of 153%, whereas Bitcoin has declined by approximately 30% during the identical timeframe.
According to one market observer, this divergence aligns with expanding global monetary supply, diminishing interest in high-risk technology equities, and declining cryptocurrency exchange holdings. Collectively, these factors are influencing the trading dynamics of both investment vehicles.
Growing monetary base and technology sector speculation unable to propel Bitcoin higher
Through a post shared on X, Jurrien Timmer, who serves as Fidelity's director of global macro, indicated that gold has demonstrated typical bull market behavior, with significant corrections drawing in short-term purchasers. Timmer characterized gold as an unadulterated "hard money" instrument that has maintained close correlation with worldwide money supply expansion.
The relationship between Bitcoin and global money supply growth is evident over extended periods, illustrated by the consistent upward movement in worldwide M2 (orange line). During periods of M2 expansion, BTC has typically trended upward. The chart reveals, however, that Bitcoin's most pronounced rallies materialized when liquidity expansion coincided with appreciation in software and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) equities, both serving as indicators for speculative market sentiment.
During the 2017–2018 period and subsequently in 2020–2021, software equities registered year-over-year increases of approximately 58% and 93%, respectively, with Bitcoin price experiencing significant rallies throughout those intervals. During 2022, software stocks declined by approximately 58%, leading Bitcoin to suffer a substantial drawdown despite elevated money supply levels persisting.
The evidence demonstrates that while money supply expansion underpins the asset's long-term trajectory, fluctuations in technology-sector speculation have a tendency to either magnify or suppress Bitcoin's price volatility. This suggests that Bitcoin possesses both hard money attributes and high-beta properties, intensifying movements in either direction.
According to Timmer's observations, liquidity remains abundant while speculative market sentiment resides in a bearish phase. Under these circumstances, gold and money supply have advanced in tandem, whereas Bitcoin has failed to maintain comparable momentum.
Cryptocurrency exchanges witness growing demand for gold products
Interest on platforms native to the cryptocurrency ecosystem has also shifted toward products linked to gold. Binance introduced round-the-clock, seven-day gold futures contracts on Jan. 5. The aggregate trading volume for this instrument is nearing $35 billion, with peak daily activity exceeding $4 billion. Weekly volume averages approximately $4.7 billion, based on data from crypto analyst Darkfost.
Trading activity intensified immediately following a two-day price correction in gold that exceeded 20%. The volume surge underscores the appetite for tokenized access to conventional hard assets through cryptocurrency trading platforms.
Simultaneously, information from CryptoQuant indicates that Binance's aggregate portfolio value encompassing BTC, ETH, XRP, and prominent ERC20 and TRC20 stablecoins has decreased to approximately $102 billion. This represents the weakest level recorded since April 2025, declining from roughly $140 billion observed in August 2025.
The reduction of $38 billion represents a combination of declining asset valuations and user transfers to self-custody solutions amid bearish market turbulence.
Regarding Bitcoin specifically, this trend suggests diminished capital availability on trading platforms, potentially indicating conservative trader positioning and limited short-term market liquidity.