BTC Breaks Below Critical $84K Level: What's the Floor for Bitcoin?
In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could plummet as low as $50,000 following its failure to maintain the critical $84,000 support threshold.
The flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has breached a critical support threshold at $84,000, a level that successfully maintained the price floor since the middle of November 2025. What lies ahead for BTC price movement?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin plunged to a two-month low of $81,00 on Thursday, driven by $1.6 billion in long liquidations
- Several market analysts predict more significant drops in an extended bear market with price targets ranging from $50,000-$58,000.
Record-low Bitcoin sentiment indicates "no upcycle"
The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continued its downward spiral during Thursday's late New York trading hours, reaching two-month lows at $81,000.
The $84,000-$86,000 demand zone, along with support at the 2026 yearly open ($87,000) and the 100-day moving averages, proved insufficient to contain the selling pressure as cryptocurrency long liquidations surpassed $1.6 billion. The decline to $81,000 eliminated over $750 million worth of long positions in Bitcoin alone.
This risk-off environment mirrors deteriorating investor confidence, which has plummeted to "extreme fear" territory at 16, down from the previous day's reading of 26.
According to analysts at Crypto Town Hall, "Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 16, signaling extreme fear," who further noted:
"Such levels historically reflect heavy risk-off sentiment and capitulation-driven conditions, often seen during sharp drawdowns or leverage flushes."
Timothy Peterson, an economist specializing in cryptocurrency markets, observed that consumer sentiment is nearing historic lows, with the "5-year average at an all-time low."
In a Friday X post, he stated that "People just don't buy Bitcoin or any other risk assets in an environment like this," further emphasizing:
"There's no upcycle until this reverses."
According to previous Cointelegraph coverage, "extreme fear" levels among market participants indicate "painful" market conditions comparable to those experienced following the FTX collapse, pointing to significant uncertainty and making a near-term reversal in BTC price movement highly improbable.
Market analysts predict BTC could find bottom at $50,000
With Bitcoin sentiment continuing its downward trajectory, market analysts are forecasting extended bear market conditions with increasingly lower price objectives.
Among these targets is a potential retest of the 200-week moving averages, which trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades describes as having "often been great value areas for long-term buys."
In a Friday X post, the analyst advised that "The closer you can accumulate to these MAs, the better value you're getting," while adding:
"Over time the price can meet the moving averages even if it hovers sideways."
It's worth noting that the 200-week SMA currently sits at $57,974, aligning with the downside projection of a bear flag pattern visible in the chart presented below.
This potential move would translate to a 30.5% drop from current price levels and represent a 54% drawdown from the all-time peak of $126,000.
Another analyst, Keith Alan, drew parallels between Bitcoin's present price behavior on the weekly timeframe and patterns observed during 2021-2022.
While acknowledging potential "short-term rallies off of these near-range lows, but ultimately I think this bear market will last longer," he stated in his most recent X analysis.
Alan was referencing the $74,500 range low, which Bitcoin touched in April 2025, in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff declaration.
Without a "great" catalyst materializing, the analyst projects that the BTC/USD pair will "ultimately" break below $74,000 and continue declining toward the 2021 all-time high level at $69,000.
Alan expressed a preference for a slower decline, stating "I'd like it a lot more if it takes until August to grind down that low," before noting:
"If we sprint down there in February, the $50K range will look more interesting to me later in the year."
Previous Cointelegraph reporting indicates that numerous analysts anticipate 2026 will unfold as a bear market year, with multiple price forecasts projecting Bitcoin could descend to levels as low as $58,000.