Analyst warns Bitcoin will continue underperforming stocks as market cycle concludes
Benjamin Cowen suggests that Bitcoin enthusiasts anticipating a major shift from precious metals may be focusing on the wrong indicators.
According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin's current price decline could persist longer than many investors are expecting.
In a video released Thursday, Cowen stated that "Bitcoin's likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market," while suggesting that widespread expectations of a "massive rotation" out of precious metals such as gold and silver and into cryptocurrency assets might be unfounded.
According to Trading Economics data, both gold and silver have experienced recent rallies, reaching new all-time high prices of $5,608.33 and $121.64, respectively.
Citi predicts silver won't slow down
On Tuesday, financial institution Citi issued a forecast suggesting that silver prices could reach as high as $150 over the coming three months, citing factors including demand from China and the US dollar dropping to four-year lows.
Cowen stressed, however, that any rotation into Bitcoin is "probably not going to happen" within the near-term timeframe.
A significant portion of the cryptocurrency market community is wagering that the recent all-time highs achieved by gold and silver serve as an indicator that historical patterns will repeat themselves, with Bitcoin eventually mirroring these gains.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,859 at the time of writing, representing a 7.78% decline over the previous seven-day period.
This development arrives as overall sentiment throughout the wider cryptocurrency market continues to deteriorate. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measurement tool for overall market sentiment in the crypto space, registered an "extreme fear" reading of 16, suggesting that market participants are exercising significant caution regarding cryptocurrency investments.
Other analysts are more optimistic
In conversation with Cointelegraph, Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, suggested the market could be approaching a critical juncture, noting, "We're right on the cusp of where we'd traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin."
Hundal provided historical context, explaining that "Bitcoin bottoms have historically lagged gold's relative strength by about 14 months," while indicating his expectation that the anticipated rotation will occur in February or March.
"If history repeats, and it is a big if, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days," Hundal stated.
Hundal highlighted that gold generally takes the lead during times of macroeconomic uncertainty, with Bitcoin subsequently following once investor risk appetite makes a comeback.
"If that model isn't broken, the tape should start to look less fragile by the end of the quarter," he commented.
In the meantime, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, shared his perspective in an X post dated Jan. 19, stating that Bitcoin "is trading at a steep discount to Gold on a relative basis."
"These asymmetric setups are very rare," he noted, further adding that "if flows turn, Q1 2026 could be the inflection point."